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Who has the Best Chance for a White Christmas?

bcollins
Explorer A
Minnesota.  Maine.  Upstate New York.  The Allegheny Mountains of Pennsylvania and West Virginia. Practically anywhere in Idaho.  And, of course, the Rockies and the Sierra Nevada Mountains. These are the places where weather history suggests you want to be if you're looking for the best chance of a white Christmas. The map below shows the historic probability of there being at least one inch of snow on the ground in the Lower 48 states on December 25 based on the 1981-2010 U.S. Climate Normals from NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.  Dark gray shows places where the probability is less than ten percent, while white shows probabilities greater than 90  percent. pic1 These probabilities are useful as a guide only to show where snow on the ground is more likely.  So while the map shows the climatological probability that a snow depth of at least one inch will be observed on December 25, the actual conditions this year could vary widely from these probabilities.  That’s because whatever the actual weather pattern is that’s in place leading up to Christmas will be what really determines the snow on the ground or snowfall on Christmas Day.  With that in mind, the map below shows the actual snow cover across the United States as of December 17. pic2 This current snow cover is much more widespread than would typically be seen in mid-December across the country.  This is in large part due to the much below-normal temperatures that have been experienced across the country the last couple of weeks.  These below-normal temperatures have meant that in most cases, when there has been snowfall, it has stuck around, as temperatures have stayed below freezing much of the time in the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast.  So the snow cover has built up in these regions, as well as across the mountains of the western part of the U.S.  With about a week to go before Christmas Day, there will be some up and down swings in the temperatures the next week or so, with much of the eastern United States likely warming up somewhat later this week into the weekend, only to likely turn colder again towards the beginning of next week.  While that will obviously impact the current snow cover to some degree, how much is hard to tell.  How much of the snow will melt, how cold will it get next week, and will there be more snow in the days leading up to Christmas?  Answers to these questions will determine who gets a white Christmas this year. So what’s the bottomline?  Well, regardless of what the historical averages say, there is always hope.  Just a couple of years ago there was actual snowfall across parts of Texas on Christmas Day, for the first time in a long time.  That said, if you’re located in Arizona, Texas, Georgia, or Florida, and you want to have a decent shot at a white Christmas, you better plan a road trip.  If you’re in Salt Lake City, Denver, Omaha, Chicago, Pittsburgh, or Hartford, you probably have a pretty good chance at seeing the frosty flakes falling this holiday season.  Minneapolis, Grand Rapids, Rochester, Buffalo, or Manchester?  If that’s where you’re spending Christmas,  your White Christmas wishes have a very good chance at coming true. Whether or not there is snow in your Christmas future, here’s wishing everyone Happy Holidays!

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